Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
